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In our previous Lookout Report, the first of 2012, we concluded that while we remain
optimistic for the economy and markets in 2012, we will continue to monitor the underlying
conflict between improving macroeconomic fundamentals and simmering sovereign and
financial system credit risks. The three-year-old U.S. economic recovery has been weak by
historical standards, in large part because of the complex and interrelated drags resulting from
subpar employment growth and ongoing stagnation in the housing market. The recovery, in
summary, seems to lack a normal degree of consumer and business confidence. Global financial
system contagion risks, as a consequence of sagging sovereign credit quality, represent a more
significant threat to economic growth than if the U.S. economy had a healthier and historically
normal post-recession recovery.