Isn’t it strange? When the Berlin Wall fell and the Iron Curtain was raised, a historic competition appeared to have come to an end. Observers saw capitalism triumphing over communism, free markets over central planning, democracy over dictatorship, Hayek over Marx. Francis Fukuyama even proclaimed the end of history – mankind had supposedly reached an optimum state, with no feasible alternative.

这难道不奇怪吗？当柏林墙倒塌、“铁幕”被拉开之际，一场历史竞赛似乎画上了句号。观察家们见证了资本主义战胜共产主义，自由市场战胜中央计划体制，民主战胜独裁，哈耶克(Hayek)战胜马克思(Marx)，弗朗西斯•福山(Francis Fukuyama)甚至宣称，历史到达了终点站——人类想来已经达到了巅峰状态，资本主义已经无可替代。

From the outset, this was a false doctrine. Whereas “real socialism” ended in disaster wherever it was tried, history teaches that the idea of a socialist society promising equality would never fade, whatever empirical evidence showed. Moreover, there was hardly a country in the world where capitalism had become established in a way that was satisfying in every respect. Historical determinism was the most absurd aspect of Fukuyama’s notion. No liberal philosopher would have embraced the idea of history being predetermined.

这套理论从一开始就错了。虽然“现实社会主义”在每一块试验田都以灾难收场，但历史告诉我们，社会主义社会承诺实现平等的思想永远不会消失，不管实践证明了什么。而且，世界上没有一个国家所施行的资本主义达到了各个方面都让人满意的程度。历史决定论是福山观点中最为荒谬的一面。自由主义哲学家决不会接受历史的发展是预先注定的观点。

Competition between different ways of organising societies has continued since the end of the cold war. Socialism still suffers from the fatal blow dealt by its past collapse. As a consequence, it is seen mainly in grassroots protests such as the Occupy movement. How this might be achieved remains totally unclear – the movement encompasses a variety of issues with one dominant element: an attack on the finance industry.

自冷战结束以来，各种不同的社会组织方式继续争奇斗艳。社会主义仍承受着过去失败经历的致命打击。因此，如今基本上只有草根抗议活动中能够看到社会主义的身影，比如“占领运动”。这场运动如何才能实现目标仍然没有任何眉目，它所涉及的众多问题都包含着一个核心因素：抨击金融业。

Looking at the evolution of the financial market crisis, the only surprise is that it took so long before a serious movement materialised. The crisis has provided strong arguments for opponents of the financial system. Interventions to avoid its collapse have severely undermined not only confidence in financial markets, but also in the market economy as a whole. Once a financial institution has become so big or interconnected that its insolvency would threaten the stability of the system, politicians must intervene. The problem of “too big to fail” has made society – more precisely, the taxpayer – hostage to the survival of individual financial institutions.

纵观这场金融市场危机的演变过程，唯一让人感到意外的是，竟然过了这么长时间，才爆发了一场大规模的运动。这场危机为反对金融体系的人们提供了有力的理由。为防止金融体系崩溃而实施干预的做法，不仅严重削弱了人们对金融市场的信心，也动摇了人们对整体市场经济的信心。当一家金融机构发展到过于庞大、或者关系过于复杂，以致其偿付能力可能威胁金融体系的稳定时，政治家必须进行干预。“大到不能倒”的问题导致社会（更确切地说是纳税人）不得不为个别金融机构的生存埋单。

As a result, the basis of free markets has been shaken. A market economy rests on the principle that individuals are free to act within boundaries set by a legal system. Individuals are invited to exploit opportunities and to assess risk. No other system can release the same amount of potential locked inside individuals. As Hayek explained, the market is the best discovery process.

这动摇了自由市场的基石。市场经济赖以存在的原则是：在法律制度规定的界限内，个人享有充分的自由。这项原则鼓励个人利用各种机会，并对风险加以评估。就释放个人的潜力而言，没有一种制度能与市场经济媲美。正如哈耶克所言，市场是最佳的发现机制。

The rules of the game should be clear. Those who succeed are free to take the profits (after taxation); those who make losses have to bear the consequences, with bankruptcy the ultimate sanction. Thus, “too big to fail” not only undermines a fundamental principle of market economies but also a principle of societies in which individuals are responsible for their actions.

游戏规则应当明确。成功者可以自由地占有（税后）利润；而亏损者必须承担后果，破产是最终的制裁。因此，“大到不能倒”现象不仅破坏了市场经济的基本原则，也破坏了一项社会原则——即个人应为自身行为负责的原则。

The billions of taxpayers’ money spent committed to rescue supposedly systemic institutions has dealt a big blow to confidence in the free market system – and has in turn become a threat to free societies. The threat has been aggravated by people expecting more from governments than politicians can actually deliver – while at the same time trust in politicians, it seems, has fallen almost everywhere to its lowest-ever levels.

数十亿纳税人的资金被用于拯救被认为具有系统重要性的机构，这沉重地打击了人们对自由市场体制的信心——这进而对自由社会构成了威胁。人们对ZF寄予厚望，可政治家实际上没有那么大的作为，这一点使问题变得更加严重——与此同时，在几乎所有地方，人们对政治家的信任都跌到了有史以来的最低水平。

Meanwhile, the financial industry still fails to give a convincing answer to a fundamental question: to what extent do its activities contribute to the welfare of society and are indispensable for a dynamic economy?

另一方面，金融业至今仍然未能对以下这个基本问题给出令人信服的答案：金融业活动究竟在多大程度上增进了社会的福祉？它们对于充满活力的经济来说是不可或缺的吗？

It would probably be too much to expect the financial sector to respond by saying that, in fact, some parts of its businesses are superfluous or even dangerous. So, governments are confronted with the challenge of creating a convincing system of regulation and supervision that enables the financial industry to deliver services considered indispensable but, as far as possible, prevents it pursuing activities deemed detrimental to society.

如果你以为金融业会承认其部分业务确实是多余、甚至是危险的，那或许是一种奢望。因此，ZF正面临着一个挑战，即建设可信的监管机制，使金融业能够提供被认为不可或缺的服务，并尽可能地阻止该行业追逐被认为对社会有害的活动。

Notwithstanding a number of encouraging improvements, such as higher capital requirements and greater transparency, this task is anything but completed. The challenge of strengthening the fundamentals of market economies and free societies continues. History never ends – except in the minds of those who believe in the inevitability of the Mayan calendar, which predicts the end of the world in December 2012.

尽管现在有了一些令人鼓舞的改进，如提高资本要求和提高透明度，但这项任务仍然远未完成。巩固市场经济和自由社会基石的挑战依然存在。历史永远不会结束——只有那些笃信玛雅历法的人，才以为历史会终结。玛雅历法预言世界末日将在2012年12月到来。

The writer is president of the Centre for Financial Studies and a former member of the European Central Bank’s executive board

本文作者是德国法兰克福大学金融研究中心总裁，曾为欧洲央行理事会成员

译者/何黎