Summary .......................................................................................................................... 7
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 11
Section 1: The Golden Age of Gas Scenario .................................................................. 13
Building the scenario .................................................................................. 14
Primary demand ......................................................................................... 19
Gas production ........................................................................................... 25
Inter-regional gas trade .............................................................................. 31
Investment in gas production and transportation ..................................... 35
Energy-related emissions ........................................................................... 37
Implications of the GAS Scenario ............................................................... 41
Section 2: The potential to expand gas supply ............................................................. 45
Preconditions for the development of gas supplies ................................... 46
The gas resource base ................................................................................ 48
Global supply trends .................................................................................. 53
The global pot ential of unconventional gas ............................................... 57
Environmental impact of gas production and transport ............................ 60
Expanding inter-regional transportation capacity...................................... 66
Pricing mechanisms and prices .................................................................. 72
Section 3: Will demand for gas keep pace with supply? ............................................... 81
Factors driving demand for natural gas ..................................................... 82
Determination of fuel choices in key sectors ............................................. 87
Emerging trends as an indicator of future gas demand ........................... 100
Section 4: Taking stock of future uncertainties ........................................................... 103
Projected gas demand in WEO-2010 New Policies Scenario .................... 104
Sensitivity analysis of gas demand ........................................................... 107
Accounting for high-impact, low-probability events ................................ 111
Annex A: Units and conversion factors...................................................................... 123
Annex B: References ................................................................................................. 125