Iran is more willing to launch terrorist attacks inside the US in response to perceived threats to the regime in Tehran, America’s top intelligence official told Congress on Tuesday.

美国最高情报官员周二向国会表示，伊朗为了应对其眼中德黑兰(Tehran)政权受到的威胁，更愿意在美国境内发起恐怖袭击。

James Clapper, director of national intelligence, said that the alleged Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US, which was uncovered last year, reflected much stronger support among senior leaders in Iran for attacks on the US.

美国国家情报局长詹姆斯•克拉珀(James Clapper)表示，去年查出的伊朗涉嫌谋刺沙特阿拉伯驻美国大使的行动，表明伊朗高层领导人对袭击美国行动的支持力度大有提高。

The stark warning comes amid rising tensions between the western powers and Iran over Tehran’s alleged efforts to build a nuclear weapon and also follows speculation that either Israeli or US spies are conducting covert attacks on the Iranian programme. New European and US sanctions threaten to inflict serious damage on the Iranian economy and have prompted threats from Tehran to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

克拉珀发出严厉警告之际，西方国家和伊朗之间在伊朗涉嫌制造核武器问题上的紧张局势有所加剧，而此前也有猜测认为，以色列或美国即将对伊朗核项目发动隐蔽攻击。欧洲和美国启动了新的制裁措施，可能对伊朗经济造成严重伤害，这刺激伊朗发出了切断霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)航运的威胁。

In a prepared statement to the Senate intelligence committee, Mr Clapper said that Iranian leaders “have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived actions that threaten the regime”.

在呈递参议院情报委员会的一份事先准备好的声明中，克拉珀表示，伊朗领导人“已经改变了想法，他们现在更想对美国发起袭击，以回应对其政权构成威胁的真实或可能的行动”。

He also linked the alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. US officials said they did not know if the alleged plot had been approved by senior Iranian leaders, with some suggesting it could have been the work of renegade factions of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. However, Mr Clapper’s statement suggested US officials believed the new willingness to attack the US came from the top.

克拉珀也表示，伊朗被指谋刺沙特大使的行动与该国最高领导人阿里•哈梅内伊(Ali Khamenei) 有关。美国官员表示，他们不知道该行动是否得到了伊朗高层领导人的批准，有些官员则暗示这可能出自革命卫队(Revolutionary Guards)的叛乱派系之手。然而，克拉珀的说法暗示，美国官员相信攻击美国的新意图来自高层。

Iran’s willingness to sponsor new attacks against the US “probably will be shaped by Tehran’s evaluation of the costs it bears for the plot against the ambassador as well as Iranian leaders’ perceptions of US threats against the regime”, Mr Clapper said.

克拉珀表示，伊朗支持对美国发动新的袭击行动的意愿，“可能将受到两个因素的影响，一是伊朗对谋刺沙特驻美大使行动所付代价的评估，二是伊朗领导人对美国对该国政权所构成威胁的认识。”

The US intelligence agencies remain unclear about Iran’s eventual nuclear ambitions, despite the renewed attention on Tehran’s intentions including the recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency. “We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so,” Mr Clapper said. “We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

美国情报机构仍不清楚伊朗最终的核野心，尽管他们又开始关注伊朗的意图，国际原子能机构(IAEA)最近公布的报告对此也有所提及。“我们认为，伊朗保留了发展核武器的选择权，其措施包括发展多种核能力，以便做好更充分的准备，使自己一旦决定生产核武器就能生产得出来，”克拉珀表示。“但我们不清楚的是，伊朗最终将是否决定建造核武器。”

Speaking to Congress for the first time since the killing of Osama bin Laden, Mr Clapper said that al-Qaeda had been substantially weakened. “The global jihadist movement lost its most iconic and inspirational leader,” he said, while most al-Qaeda members found the new leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, to be less compelling and “will not offer him the deference they gave bin Laden”.

在击毙奥萨马•本•拉登(Osama bin Laden)之后第一次对国会发言时，克拉珀表示基地组织的实力已遭到了极大的削弱。“全球圣战运动失去了其最具偶像气质、最能鼓舞人心的领袖人物，”克拉珀表示，而大多数基地组织成员都发现新领导人不那么咄咄逼人，因而“也不会像顺从本•拉登那样顺从他”。

The group had become more decentralised and could fragment over the next few years if counterterrorism efforts against al-Qaeda were maintained. However, while large-scale attacks on the US were less likely, especially after the death last year in Yemen of US-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, the group might still be orchestrate smaller, regional attacks.

基地组织的分散化趋势已更加明显，如果不放松针对该组织的反恐努力，它未来几年可能土崩瓦解。然而，尽管不大可能发生针对美国的大规模袭击——尤其在美国籍传教士安瓦尔•奥拉基(Anwar al-Awlaki)去年在也门被击毙之后——该组织仍有可能策划一些小规模、地区性的袭击行动。

译者/邢嵬