<P>出版单位：摩根斯坦利<BR>出版日期：2007.01.8<BR>报告的名称：摩根斯坦利--中国股市泡沫危机<BR>文件的格式：pdf<BR>页数：12页<BR>语言：英文<BR>介绍：<BR>  <BR>Conclusion: I remain cautious on offshore Chinese<BR>equities and am turning cautious on onshore Chinese<BR>A-shares. If a bubble does not burst at the tip of<BR>negative macro events (like the 1997 Asian Financial<BR>Crisis), it deflates under the weight of valuations it can<BR>no longer sustain (such as the end of TMT bubble in<BR>2000). Market fundamentals cannot explain today’s<BR>valuations. The market reacts differently to similar<BR>macro events at different valuation levels. Even without<BR>a crack in liquidity conditions in 2007 (Fed rate outlook is<BR>the key), investors will become more sensitive as<BR>valuations escalate, in my view.<BR>What's New: The market seems to be rallying beyond<BR>rational levels. Typical symptoms of a late-stage<BR>peak-market cycle are emerging: 1) a flood of corporate<BR>financing; 2) loose corporate investment discipline; 3)<BR>rotational sector rallies without fundamental support; 4)<BR>target price rises without earnings forecast revisions;<BR>and 5) undaunted confidence in a coming liquidity flow<BR>that no one can quantify.<BR>Bubbles to avoid: I think the financial sectors are the<BR>largest bubbles among offshore Chinese equities. If<BR>their de-rating materializes, this would drag down the<BR>market valuation benchmark significantly in both<BR>H-share and A-share markets.<BR></P>
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