GS 高盛：2007 Outlook- Warming up for Olympics 12000　　

01.03 ，８８页 　英文版.rar

January 3, 2007 China: Portfolio Strategy
Goldman Sachs Strategy Research 1　January 3, 2007
China: Portfolio Strategy　2007 Outlook: Warming　up for Olympics 12000

Bulldog running towards Olympics 12000
For 2007, we forecast total returns of about 20% for offshore-listed stocks and of about 25% for A-shares. Performance in the market could be more volatile than in 2006 given the market’s lower risk tolerance to macro/micro uncertainties due to expanding multiples．．．

Table of contents
2007 outlook: Warming up for Olympics 12000 3
Our returns expectation for Chinese stocks in 2007: 20%-25% 5
Macro: Moderating growth; decoupling is playing out 10
Earnings: Robust trend is set to be sustained 14
Valuations: Still reasonable for now 17
Liquidity: Still abundant 26
Key themes to watch for 2007 (1): The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games 29
Key themes to watch for 2007 (2): Corporate tax reform 35
Risks to our view 37
Sector strategy: Chasing the consumers 38
Sector Scorecard for 2007 40
Chinese Telecoms: 3G at last! 58
Goldman Sachs/Gao Hua top-ten China picks for 2007 61
Goldman Sachs and Gao Hua China coverage (143 in total, 37 A-shares, 23 dual-listed A/H stocks) 75
Disclosures 85