Disinflation & decelerating growth are turning Asia’s central banks towards
easing. The upside from easing is multiple expansion: the 18% rally YTD
in China banks reflects confidence that low provisions will persist, as policy
"pushes out" the NPL cycle. In China & Asia broadly, we see less scope for
EPS upgrades, as most estimates already anticipate a muted credit cycle.
Policy stimulus could boost loan growth forecasts, but the downside risk of
stimulus is NIM compression. Three drivers impact NIMs: (i) Asia is asset
sensitive, & rate cuts weigh on margins (Korea/Taiwan); (ii) deposit
competition is already high, & stimulus could stoke higher funding costs
(Thailand/Indo); (iii) in cases where easing does bring down funding costs,
improved liquidity could eventually weigh on loan pricing-power (China).
Korea vs. Taiwan: First, we look at how term structure & liquidity impact
bank NIMs, comparing KO & TW. Both are asset-sensitive, despite very
different funding profiles. We prefer Korea Banks to Taiwan, as the
former reduce interest rate risk & higher NIMs underpin 10%+ ROEs. We’d
buy KO banks on weakness post-4Q results, as NIMs will likely fall 3-8bps
Q/Q (ex-KBFG) due to an accounting change on 90d+ delinquent loans.