DB：亚洲每日聚焦 （英文）

（36页） 01.15 .pdf

15 January 2007 Asian Daily Focus

We still expect above trend aggegate global growth in 2007 and 2008, driven by a combination of strong emerging market demand, continued recovery in European growth rates and further modest improvement in the Japanese economy. US growth could also prove more robust than DB’s base case.
• We have increased consumption weighted average forecasts for LME metal prices by 4% for 2007 and 9% for 2008 to reflect these developments.
• Demand and supply projections favour an extended period of nickel price strength over the next two years, and this metal now ranks as our favoured exposure in the complex. We have increased our forecast for 2007 and 2008 by 62% and 110%to USD14.28/lb and USD14.06/lb, respectively
• A further appreciation in annual average zinc prices is also expected in 2007, but demand and supply risks are