花旗——英国银行业2007年投资策略

UK Banks in 2007 Twin Peaks

8 January 2007 | 112 pages

(１１２页)　　01.08. 1.58M pdf

Unsecured credit losses and interest rates to peak in 2007 — While we have arguably not yet reached the peak in either unsecured credit losses or UK interest rates, we expect both to be achieved in 2007. Interest rate futures currently discount a peak around mid 2007, while trading updates along with securitisation data suggests that unsecured delinquency trends are stabilising

Contents
Investment Summary 3
Recommendations and Earnings Revisions 4
Issues for UK Banks 5
- Stronger Relative Earnings Growth 6
- Unsecured Credit and Interest Rates - Two Key Cycles 10
- Increased Competition for Mortgage Specialists 16
Detailed Forecasts/ Investment Overview 25
- Alliance & Leicester – Sell/ Medium Risk (3M) 26
- Barclays – Sell/ Medium Risk (3M) 32
- Bradford & Bingley - Hold/ Medium Risk (2M) 39
- HBOS – Buy/ Medium Risk (1M) 45
- HSBC – Hold/ Medium Risk (2M) 51
- Lloyds TSB – Hold, Medium Risk (2M) 66
- Northern Rock – Sell/ Medium Risk (3M) 72
- Royal Bank of Scotland – Buy, Medium Risk (1M) 77
- Standard Chartered – Buy, Medium Risk (1M) 85
Valuation & Risk Disclosures 97
Analyst Certification Appendix A-1 107

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-17 15:51:28编辑过]