Nomura ：中国电信业- 重组，路杀（含政策蓝图和所有运营商分析）

共114页 01.09 1.56M 英文 pdf

We think China Mobile will be worst hit, with its likely forced stewardship of TD-SCDMA set to rudely cool the stock’s performance after last year’s scorching run, and downgrade the stock to REDUCE in anticipation of sustained margin erosion through the rest of the decade. Unfortunately for China Mobile’s competitors, we think their fixed-line operations will take away what they gain in the mobile area, which means the whole mobile segment looks at risk of being run over by disappointment

Contents
TD-SCDMA: A state-directed marriage? 3
TD-SCDMA’s strategic role 3
What makes TD-SCDMA different? 6
Intellectual property rights 10
How ready is TD-SCDMA? 12
Whose risk? Whose responsibility? 13
Timing of 3G licensing 15
Implications for China Mobile 16
Domestic vendors — opportunity knocks? 20
Restructuring: The day after tomorrow 22
China’s perspective 22
Driving forces for China’s telecoms reforms 22
The next round of restructuring in the making 26
The motivation 27
The hurdles 30
The most conceivable scenario 31
Potential impact of restructuring 32
The dynamism of the market 41
The wonder of mobile 41
Broadband in China 44
The remains of fixed-line 45
Stock picks: A reversal of fortunes 46
Government: friend or foe? 46
Mobile valuation cycle 47
Downgrading the sector 48
China Mobile: obsession cannot last 49
China Unicom: fair for fair alike 53
China Telecom: acquisition price the key 57
China Netcom: Swapping with Unicom 61
Appendix I: TD-SCDMA technology recap 65
Advantages of TD-SCDMA 65
Limitations of TD-SCDMA 68
Next stages of evolution 69
Appendix II: Regulatory landscape 71
MII revisited 71
State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission 74
National Development and Reform Commission 77
State Council 78
Appendix III: Glossary 80
Company profiles 82
China Mobile 82
China Unicom 88
China Telecom 93
China Netcom 99

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-28 9:39:53编辑过]