<P><STRONG><FONT face=黑体 size=6>DB 德银：阿根廷 银行业 深度研究</FONT></STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG><FONT face=黑体 size=6>（61页） 23 January 2007   英文   1.03M</FONT></STRONG></P>
<P><FONT size=3>The domestic economy has grown at an average annual rate of 9% since 2003,following a deep recession from 1999 through 2002 which had disastrous repercussions on the banking system. Consequently, deposits have returned to the financial system, private sector loan demand has revived, asset quality has improved to pre-crisis levels, and the banking system returned to profitability in 2005, following negative results from 2001-2004. We expect sector profitability to continue to recover, as DB economists anticipate economic growth to remain strong through 2008 (+7.0% in 2007 and +4.5% in 2008).</FONT></P>
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<P><FONT size=4>                                       Table of Contents<BR>Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3<BR>Outlook ..............................................................................................3<BR>Valuation ....................................................................................3<BR>Risks ......................................................................................................3<BR>Ratings summary............................................................................... 4<BR>Banco Frances (BFR.N, Buy) ...........................................................4<BR>Banco Macro (BMA.N, Buy) ...........................................................4<BR>Industry outlook ................................................................................ 5<BR>Valuation ............................................................................................ 9<BR>Economic outlook............................................................................ 14<BR>The financial crisis ........................................................................... 18<BR>Banco Frances.................................................................................. 21<BR>Investment thesis ............................................................................ 23<BR>Outlook .........................................................................................23<BR>Valuation .......................................................................................23<BR>Risks .....................................................................................23<BR>Earnings outlook.............................................................................. 24<BR>Valuation .......................................................................................... 33<BR>Company description ...................................................................... 35<BR>Earnings model ................................................................................ 36<BR>Banco Macro .................................................................................... 39<BR>Investment thesis ............................................................................ 41<BR>Outlook ...........................................................................................41<BR>Valuation ..........................................................................................41<BR>Risks .............................................................................................41<BR>Earnings outlook.............................................................................. 42<BR>Valuation .......................................................................................... 49<BR>Company description ...................................................................... 51<BR>Earnings model ................................................................................ 53</FONT></P>