DB 德银：希腊 银行业 2007年 展望报告

（65页）　01.25 1.30M 英文　　pdf

Outlook
In the European banking sector, we are overweight Greek banks. We think that there will be
three major themes to Greek banks performance in 2007
􀂄 A continuation of the favorable economic and banking environment
􀂄 Domestic consolidation in Greece
􀂄 Positioning of Greek banks in South Eastern Europe
Our top picks are by order of preference: 1/ EFG Eurobank (TP of Euro 37), 2/ Piraeus (TP of
Euro 32) and 3/ Bank of Cyprus (TP of Euro 14).

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Table of Contents
The Greek market .............................................................................. 5
The Greek retail market: volume growth and margin....................................5
The real estate market: a support for mortgage growth ...............................5
Domestic consolidation in Greece ...............................................................7
South Eastern Europe: who is well positioned?........................... 12
Competitive landscape in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia ........................12
Greek banks’ presence outside Greece ................................................13
Valuation and changes in earnings estimates .............................. 15
TOP picks: 1/ EFG, 2/ Piraeus and 3/ Bank of Cyprus............................15
Changes in earnings estimates ..............................................................15
F inancial calendar..................................................................................16
EFG EuroBank .................................................................................. 19
Piraeus Bank..................................................................................... 27
Bank of Cyprus................................................................................. 33
National Bank of Greece ................................................................. 39
Marfin Popular Bank........................................................................ 45
Alpha Bank ....................................................................................... 49
Agricultural Bank of Greece............................................................ 55