HSBC 汇丰：环球新兴市场07宏观分析

167页 02.01 3.50M 英文 pdf

A monetary stimulus from central banks in the developed world was at the heart of the initial monetary shock that drove up asset prices but improvements in EM fundamentals and financial deregulation meant that more of the available liquidity was channelled to EM than in previous periods of expansionary policy. Liquidity generated from inside EM has also been a force, particularly where there are controls on the outward transfer of capital. But for many markets the growth in domestic monetary aggregates has largely reflected the counterpart to an increase in FX reserves, as central banks intervened to curb exchange rate appreciation and printed local currency to fund FX purchases. Trying to capture both effects in our analysis, we have used a measure of global liquidity comprised of the US monetary base and total FX reserves held by central banks globally. There have been important changes in the composition of this liquidity measure in recent years. The US monetary base has shrunk as a proportion of the total; the reserves component is increasingly held inside EM and the concentration of FX reserves holdings has increased markedly. These changes have made the decisions of EM policy makers critical for the future path of global asset prices

Contents

Summary 2
Why all the boats floated 5
What could turn the tide? 21
The view at high tide 29
Cross-asset correlations 34
Equity markets 41
Fixed Income 47
EM FX 52
Country and territory overviews 57
Argentina 61
Brazil 65
Chile 69
China 73
Egypt 77
Hong Kong SAR 81
Hungary 85
India 89
Indonesia 93
Israel 97
Kazakhstan 101
Korea 105
Malaysia 109
Mexico 113
Philippines 117
Poland 121
Russia 125
Saudi Arabia 129
Singapore 133
South Africa 137
Taiwan 141
Thailand 145
Turkey 149
Ukraine 153
United Arab Emirates 157
Vietnam 159
Disclosure appendix 163
Disclaimer 164