<P> <br></P><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>
<P align=left>In this paper, I present a Bayesian decision theory and de</FONT><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>fi</FONT><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>ne choice-based subjective</P>
<P align=left>probabilities that faithfully represent Bayesian decision makers’ prior and posterior</P>
<P align=left>beliefs regarding the likelihood of the possible e</FONT><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>ff</FONT><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>ects contingent on his actions. I argue</P>
<P align=left>that no equivalent results can be obtained in Savage’s (1954) subjective expected</P>
<P align=left>utility theory and give an example illustrating the potential harm caused by ascribing</P>
<P>to a decision maker subjective probabilities that do not represent his beliefs.</P></FONT>

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-3-2 4:55:18编辑过]