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Equity Strategy Global Emerging Markets

GEMs Equity Strategy Weekly Market outlook

02.16 16 February 2007 26页 英文版

EM equities continue to advance – and this week the Bernanke testimony provides the
context. This imparted a distinctly upbeat backdrop for EM performance. The Fed cut its
2007 GDP forecast from 3-3.25% to 2.5-3%. Bernanke said that the pattern of growth
during 2007 is expected to be softer in the first half (2.5%?) followed by stronger growth
in the second half as the residential investment drag fades (3%?). The Fed’s downgrade
was mainly based on lower residential investment than assumed six months ago. Growth
then evolves at a similar 2.75-3% pace in 2008.
Despite the rather good growth profile, the Fed also expects inflation to remain well
behaved. Core PCE inflation is expected to make slow progress down, from 2-2.25% this
year to 1.75-2% in 2008. Overall, Bernanke’s testimony suggests that the central scenario
is one where the Fed remains on hold for the next six months. An opportunity may present
itself for dropping the upside inflation bias at the August (or possibly June) FOMC
meeting.