CS：China Overseas Land & Investment

0213 4页 英文

● We attended COLI’s analyst luncheon and got an update on its
latest development and LAT provisions.
● COLI should have already made LAT provisions of around
HK$560 mn in 2006, which is in-line with our expectations. It is
estimated that LAT provisions for 2007E and 2008E will amount to
HK$900 mn and HK$800 mn, respectively.
● Property sales remain solid with close to 35% of 2007E
completions have been presold. COLI acquired 2.5 mn sqm GFA
during 4Q06, pushing its land bank reserve to 16.3 mn sqm GFA.
● Marking all its assets to market, including the newly acquired
sites, we are revising up our NAV estimate by 8% to HK$6.88/sh.
Our TP is also revised up to HK$7.8, which is set at par to our 12-
month forward NAV. With the stock trading at 9% premium to our
12-month forward NAV and 18x 07E PER, valuation is not cheap.
Yet, the stock is not overly stretched as it is still trading at 23%
discount to our intrinsic value. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating.