UBS 瑞银：中国市场－重回现实

The New China – Back to the Real World

UBS Investment Research　Asian Economic Perspectives

56页　　英文　　1 March 2007

China has been a very unusual and unique place for much of the past decade: a combination of world-beating manufacturing and painful rural stagnation,external imbalances and domestic deflation, enormous volatility and record high growth. However, we also believe China’s unique days are ending, and that the mainland economy is about to become much more “normal”

In this report we lay out eight key macro themes we think investors should be watching for over the medium term, from 2007 to 2010:
􀁑 The end of the boom/bust economy
􀁑 The end of cheap labor
􀁑 The return of Chinese farmers
􀁑 The return of inflation
􀁑 The end of manufacturing domination
􀁑 Back to balanced trade
􀁑 The end of “renminbi fixation”
􀁑 The beginning of China’s rebalancing