Table of contents
Executive Summaries
Macro outlook: Upswing in activity in 2H12 if policymakers can get it right 4
Metals & Bulk Commodities – a year of sequential recovery, Chinese demand
holds the key to trajectory 7
Oil & Gas: A tale of two supply sides 13
Agricultural Commodities: Prices to consolidate lower in 2012 16
Fertilisers: Demand is deferred on cautious buying, not outright gone 18
Copper
“Short fall in mine supply more of a risk than disappointing demand” 20
Aluminium
“Structural surplus weighs on prices despite support from carry trades” 22
Zinc
“Moderate market surplus limits short term price prospects” 24
Lead
“Lead demand solid but look out for supply” ” 26
Tin
“Tin market balance appears tight” 28
Stainless Steel
“China continues to drive demand” 30
Nickel
“Range trading in short run but cost pressures to eventually push prices higher” 32
Ferrochrome
“Q1 2012 contract prices fall but spot prices now rising“ 34
Molybdenum
“Weaker short-term outlook reflects ongoing destocking and European slowdown” 36
Cobalt
“No end to surplus….or DRC supply risk” 38
Steel
“All eyes on China to pull apparent demand out the trough” 40
Iron ore
“Remains a top play on Chinese growth” 42
Manganese
“Mn ore prices fall heavily and remain under pressure” 44
Metallurgical Coal
“A 2012 supply rebound means a dull chapter in a good story” 46
Thermal Coal
“Diverging prices for different qualities” 48
Uranium
“Prices remain flat as market in surplus” 50
Oil
“Bullish on crude through 2015” 52
Natural Gas
“Too much of a good thing” 54
Gold
“Looking to climb back to previous highs” 56
Silver
“Big upside potential when markets recover” 58
Platinum and Palladium
“Risks to supply start to materialise in 2012” 59
Corn
“Easier demand rationing environment caps price upside” 62
Wheat
“Wheat supply bearish, but increased feed demand supports price” 64
Soybeans
“Soybeans should gain in relative value as we enter 2012/13” 66
Palm Oil
“Likely to be the outperformer among oilseeds” 68
Sugar
“Short term bearishness to give way to riskier second half” 70
Coffee
“A year of two halves” 72
Cocoa
“Some price revival due after weak end to 2011” 74
Cotton
“Lower supply, but more comfortable stocks” 76
Nitrogen
“Less volatility in 2012” 78
Phosphates
“DAP prices supported into spring before H2 pressure” 79
Potash
“Increased US corn acreage to support 2012 demand” 80