As the markets try and gauge the likelihood of a Greek exit from the euro, we present asimple hypothetical decision tree. It provides a framework for analysis of this complexproblem. This is not a forecast but one way of looking at the problem for the EUR. Adifferent tree may be applicable for other asset classes. The likely extent of contagion tothe rest of the Eurozone is an obvious starting point in the analysis, but Greece’sexperience after its exit would be the other critical element to the euro’s performance.Using the decision tree we think the best case outcome for the euro would be limitedcontagion and a damaging post-euro experience for Greece.