巴克莱资本-中国房地产分析20页   14 June 2012

CHINA PROPERTY
Shareholder value – don’t bank on it

Without a return to property price appreciation via a significant policy reversal by the central government, developers’ over-investment in the inflationary boom period has left them facing sub-cost of capital returns due to falling development margins, low asset turns and highly leveraged balance sheets. To improve their return on capital - and the multiples on which their shares are valued – developers need to change their business models in our view. We believe this will not be easy in the near term.

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