恒生银行：环球市场报告 (英文)

26 March 2007 11页

Global FX
􀂗 US dollar fell against majors on concerns that trouble in the US sub-prime mortgage market
would spread to other sectors, undermining the growth prospect of the US economy, which may
then force the US Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates.
Interest Rates
􀂗 US interest rates plunged to their lowest levels in more than two months as turmoil in global
equity markets, deepening trouble in the US sub-prime mortgage sector and recession fears led
to strong safe haven demand for US Treasuries.
Global Economics
􀂗 Despite growing concerns about trouble in the sub-prime mortgage market, many are not
convinced that it would spread to other sectors and cause a recession in the US. The more
probable scenario is for the housing downturn to undermine consumer spending and slow the
growth momentum of the overall economy.
􀂗 The European Central Bank has raised interest rates on seven occasions since December 2005,
bringing its benchmark rates up from 2% to its present level of 3.75%. However, with credit
conditions remaining accommodative in the euro zone and fearing renewed pressures on
inflation, the ECB is prepared to raise interest rates further. Recent hawkish comments by ECB
officials as well as the ECB Monthly Bulletin for March also reinforced expectations of a hike,
perhaps as early as June this year
􀂗 The Bank of Japan kept the overnight call