GS 高盛：全球经济每周报告 04.18

Global Economics Weekly Issue No: 07/14

April 18, 2007 12页

Is the Price of a Happy Slowdown Rising?

Inflation is the biggest fundamental risk to our
‘happy slowdown’ view of the world. In this
regard, it is noteworthy that inflation has been
drifting higher in some major economies
recently, especially the UK, and in some parts
of Asia.
Markets expectations of inflation have been
rising too and, with capacity tight, inflation
could persist. However, we are of the view that
global inflation will moderate over the
remainder of this year. In the US, below-trend
growth should see core inflation moving lower
in the months ahead—yesterday’s better than
expected March core CPI is encouraging in
this regard. Inflationary pressure in the
Eurozone and Japan also look to be well
contained.