星展银行—美国，香港，新加坡利率展期及策略 04.17

US, Hong Kong, Singapore Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy

DBS Group Research 17 April 2007 7页

US
• With growth continuing to be sub-par and inflation expected to drop in
the coming months, the late summer will likely see rate cuts; we continue
to expect two cuts for the year as a whole, but this is nothing more than
“fine-tuning”.
• The change in the 21 March FOMC statement is big news for the bond
market and should have a lasting impact; we see a new trading range for
2Y and 10Y yields.
• The 2s/10s curve has steepened. However, this is not because of the Fed or
front-end dynamics but because of back-end steepening pressure.
Hong Kong
• Our view on HKD bond yields remains little changed. As Hibor-Libor spreads
hold steady, the total return performance of the HKD government bond
market should track that of the US Treasury market closely; i.e. HK Exchange
Fund Notes should follow Treasuries higher in the coming months.
Singapore
• Despite rising yields in the G3 economies, SGD money market yields have
fallen sharply amid ample liquidity and they could stay low for a while.
However, a further drop