据说现在孕育着未来—人口结构对资产影响及2 季度资产配置报告

28页 申银万国　　04 月23 日

目 录

总体结论····························································· 2
1 焦点：人口结构与资产价格······························ 3
1.1 理论：人口结构对资产影响如何产生？································3
1.1.1 影响途径1：经济层面··············································································3
1.1.2 影响途径2：投资行为层面······································································5
1.2 实践：人口结构对资产影响如何体现？································7
1.2.1 美国BABYBOOM 案例··········································································7
1.2.2 东亚资产繁荣案例·····················································································8
1.2.3 人口结构对我国资产的影响·····································································9
1.3 应用：人口结构对资产影响如何把握？······························12
1.3.1 对于周期的把握：2010 年是重要时点···················································12
1.3.2 对于变化的把握：养老资产积累是必然················································14
1.3.3 对于收益的把握：人口红利推低风险溢价············································15
2 2 季度各类资产配置价值分析······················ 18
2.1 权益类资产： 资金推动的隐忧··········································18
2.2 固定收益类资产：货币收紧的现实·····································21
2.3 其他子资产：系统性收益与风险········································23
3 策略：战术平衡，降低股票配置··················· 23
附录 资产风险收益特征跟踪·······················································24