最近在公司内部接受证券分析培训，经常写一些分析报告。现在借论坛一块宝地，把练习的内容发上来，希望大家指点。

报告涉及的均为纽约证券或者纳斯达克上市的公司，由于本人翻译能力实在拿不出手，内容就全按原来的英文发表了。

公司走的是价值分析的路线。部门里上至总监下至分析员都是巴菲特的拥簇，所以报告里都是推荐长线。其实关于价值分析在中国股市是否适用，我一直都是持80%否定的，因为个人觉得国内股市的本质和西方股市仍有差别：系统全面性、报表真实性和监督完整性仍待完善。不过相信总有有一天，价值分析会在国内实现它的价值的。

今次是新东方，仓促而成，不足之处望大家不吝赐教。^_^

Market: NYSE

Name: New Oriental Education & Tech Group ADR

Ticker: EDU

Business: Education Service

Closing Price as of May 18th: $45.45

Target Price: $53 before June 2008

VALUATION:

With strong recognigiton from its participating students, New Oriental Education Corp have enjoyed a prosperious first year in NYSE. Since its IPO on Sept 6, 2006, the company have exerted a strong performance. In one year, the stock jumped more than 100% and is still going up consistently. The company has a fantastic business model that profits from providing English Test Prep and general english education. Backed by a decade of market expansion and brand building, New oriental now enjoys a competitive economic moat that protects its business well.

The stock price has been going wild on a 52-week basis, reaching a ridiculous P/E in the beginning of this year. But since the Feburary stock market panic and some other short-term sell-offs, paired by a strong quartely earning, the P/E has dropped to an almost reasonable price. I would say definately buy when the price goes down below 40, buy with gut when it's around 45, and don't do anything stupid if it gets close to 50.

The growth prospect looks good on New Oriental's business. the company has completed most of its infrastructure construction (mainly investments in new school buildings), so investment won't be that huge in the future, providing a basis for more free cash flows. Further more, as summer break draws close, its main customer body,-students, will have extra time for course participation. As a result, summer would see a great increase in student enrollment, which could give it's earnings an awfully good boast. Additionally, the US has recently further loosened its student visa application cretria, fueling a frenzy in US education pursuits. So far as reported, the TOEFL IBT, one of the core exams one has to take in order to apply for education in the United States, has been reaching FULL capacity hours after it opened its registration. Comapred with the old days, this can only be described as overoptimistic and crazy, which will definately give a surprise surge in EDU's 2nd and 3rd quarter tuition revenue, and of course, better earnings.