ML 美林-中国的虚拟股票泡沫 05.23

China's Virtual Stock Bubble 4页

Bubble Risks?
􀂄 Once again, China (2007) is not Japan (late 1980s).
􀂄 Big difference #1: the PBoC is tightening much earlier than the BoJ did.
􀂄 Big difference #2: China’s stock market “bubble”—if it is one—is virtual.
Unlike late-1980s Japan, it has had very little impact on the real economy.
􀂄 So a correction would have at most a temporary economic impact on China,
and thus the rest of Asia in our view.
􀂄 We think the bigger market risks lie on the upside. First, RMB appreciation
could exceed expectations. Second, the bubble could cross the border to
Hong Kong, as China opens the door to capital outflows into risky assets.