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2007-07-15

Fundamentals and Market Wraps:
Australia:
Employment rose by a modest 2.5K in June,and the June unemploynet rate edged up to 4.3%,which is the lowest level for over 30 years.Generally,the downtrend of unemployment rate was always accompanied with the uptrend of cash rate.It remains at the top of RBA's inflation worries' list.
The ASX 200 added 26 points today to close at 6389.However,it is disappointing considering the Dow Jones in the US had its best gain in five years last night.Yesterday's bid by RIO for Alcan continued to drive the market to keep a close eye on mining stocks today.Rio fell 2.5% today .But most of the mining companies were strong again today.
Crude oil went down a bit to 72.91 USD a barrel ,and the Gold took advantage of US dollar's weakness,gaining 0.9%.
The PPI(expected 0.4%,mom, 17th),CPI (expected 0.2%,mom,18th)and API oil stockpile change will be released

China:
CPI(3.5%),工业增加值,GDP growth (10.9%) will be released on 18th ,June.

The BOC issued 101 billion ,3-year's 定向央行票据(英文不知道怎么说,望高手指点),with coupon rate 3.60%,2bps lower than the market rate in Thursday this week.We expect the A-share market will be under pressure at Friday's index before the datas released.

Shares commended:
海油工程:It is put on our schedule again.The CICC released a report of it ,which indicated that the TP of it is 45.We believe institutional investors had already holded much of the stocks and the company's excellent fundementals will attract future investors too.Moreover,the oil price gained a lot last week and the market expects it will have further gaining next week if the stockpile in USA drops .
Key risks: Sharply decrease in oil price and uncertainty of tax.
中兴通讯:Hold. 3G.

Technical Analysis:
宜华木业:Supposing the share is in downtrend.,so 28.10 is a powerful support level and 32.68 is the supposing resistance.According to Gann theroy,we get the same conclustion.The only bad news is that the chart is in a downtrend rectangle.
Note:Technical analysis only holds in short term investment .

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