高盛－浦发银行：基于估值下调评级至中性

Removed from Asia Pacific Buy List Shanghai Pudong Development Bank

07.17 8页

Current view
We would hold SPDB, as SPDB’s 2008E P/E at 17.8X remains reasonable
vs. average 20X 2008E P/E for smaller A-share banks (except 35X for CITIC
A-share [601998.SS, Sell]), and as SPDB is a Yangtze River delta focused
bank with decent corporate banking and corporate deposit franchise. We
would be more positive, if:
1) Citigroup’s stake was increased to maximum 19.9% and SPDB’s further
cooperation with Citigroup made solid progress. We believe given the
recent management changes of SPDB, and Citigroup’s 20% stake
investment in Guangdong Development Bank, the negotiation on the stake
sale and further cooperation has not started ytd;
2) New management team (including the new Chairman and President) of
SPDB clarify SPDB’s mid-term growth strategy, including how to enhance
its relatively weak consumer loans and deposits franchise (12% and 15% of
total loans/deposits respectively in 2006); and
3) SPDB posts better than expected NIM, fee income and consumer
deposits growth in its 1H2007/3Q2007 results.
Risks to SPDB include macro hard landing, draconian