zhangtao 发表于 2012-11-15 21:52 
epoh老师,您好!
您看看以下winrats程序错在什么地方?
非常感谢!
open data g10xrate.xls
data(format=xls,org=columns) 1 6237 usxjpn usxfra usxsui
set
xjpn = 100.0*log(usxjpn/usxjpn{1})
set
xfra = 100.0*log(usxfra/usxfra{1})
set
xsui = 100.0*log(usxsui/usxsui{1})
*VAR(1) model for the mean, BEKK for the variance
system(model=var1)
variables
xjpn xfra xsui
lags 1
det constant
end(system)
garch(p=1,q=1,model=var1,mv=bekk,hmatrices=hh,rvectors=rd,pmethod=simplex,piters=10) / xjpn xfra xsui
MV-GARCH, BEKK - Estimation by BFGS
Convergence in 104 Iterations. Final criterion was 0.0000095 <= 0.0000100
Usable Observations 6235
Log Likelihood -11809.4143
Variable Coeff Std Error T-Stat Signif
************************************************************************************
1. XJPN{1} 0.054056756 0.011157196 4.84501 0.00000127
2. XFRA{1} 0.023692552 0.012767254 1.85573 0.06349232
3. XSUI{1} -0.034347414 0.009122370 -3.76519 0.00016643
4. Constant 0.006201308 0.005803445 1.06856 0.28526957
5. XJPN{1} 0.028502333 0.011319085 2.51808 0.01179974
6. XFRA{1} 0.023733022 0.009892819 2.39901 0.01643924
7. XSUI{1} -0.009374605 0.006832107 -1.37214 0.17001996
8. Constant -0.001862654 0.004674356 -0.39848 0.69027378
9. XJPN{1} 0.040988355 0.013943092 2.93969 0.00328542
10. XFRA{1} 0.025029943 0.009888338 2.53126 0.01136540
11. XSUI{1} -0.017967277 0.009367145 -1.91812 0.05509620
12. Constant -0.001915049 0.005577392 -0.34336 0.73132830
13. C(1,1) 0.080420169 0.004844832 16.59917 0.00000000
14. C(2,1) 0.026792535 0.007153359 3.74545 0.00018007
15. C(2,2) 0.055092810 0.005136386 10.72599 0.00000000
16. C(3,1) 0.034174635 0.007952256 4.29748 0.00001728
17. C(3,2) -0.004064308 0.010069368 -0.40363 0.68648419
18. C(3,3) -0.058668020 0.006546375 -8.96191 0.00000000
19. A(1,1) 0.356742939 0.011175929 31.92065 0.00000000
20. A(1,2) 0.099023385 0.009312906 10.63292 0.00000000
21. A(1,3) 0.107358980 0.012538272 8.56250 0.00000000
22. A(2,1) 0.033523234 0.015000487 2.23481 0.02542984
23. A(2,2) 0.398493512 0.017986175 22.15555 0.00000000
24. A(2,3) -0.070349572 0.019349112 -3.63580 0.00027712
25. A(3,1) -0.047186040 0.010155983 -4.64613 0.00000338
26. A(3,2) -0.122496143 0.012604129 -9.71873 0.00000000
27. A(3,3) 0.292924401 0.014013391 20.90318 0.00000000
28. B(1,1) 0.936391469 0.003747744 249.85472 0.00000000
29. B(1,2) -0.025328191 0.003246968 -7.80057 0.00000000
30. B(1,3) -0.027021572 0.004178229 -6.46723 0.00000000
31. B(2,1) -0.010662124 0.005817199 -1.83286 0.06682308
32. B(2,2) 0.911892529 0.007065422 129.06413 0.00000000
33. B(2,3) 0.030714339 0.007142836 4.30002 0.00001708
34. B(3,1) 0.016113773 0.004334369 3.71767 0.00020107
35. B(3,2) 0.047482017 0.005627813 8.43703 0.00000000
36. B(3,3) 0.946088918 0.005435624 174.05342 0.00000000