GS 高盛：中国股市策略报告－香港H股指数2008年底将到17000点

（46页） 07.26 July 26, 2007

China: Portfolio Strategy Goldman Sachs Strategy Research 1

China: Portfolio Strategy HSCEI target: 17,000 by end-2008 HSCEI

Table of contents
H-share index: Count on earnings; raising end-2008E target to 17,000 3
Macro: Sweet spot of growth remains intact; policy headwind likely 8
Macro comparison: Now versus then (April 2004) 12
Valuations: Fair, limited room for further multiple expansion 13
Earnings: The key returns driver 17
Liquidity: More to come 20
Currency: Bonus 24
Goldman Sachs/Gao Hua top-10 picks for China 26
Appendix 30
Index/sector valuation update 33
Goldman Sachs and Gao Hua China Coverage (159 in total, 49 A-shares, 31 dual-listed A/H stocks) 34
Disclosures 44