Table Of Contents
WTI is the driver ............................................................................. 3
We believe our WTI rallies argument = over-weight oil leverage ..................................... 3
Hess upgrade ................................................................................. 6
The company should strengthen performance through 2013 ........................................... 6
Price Targets & EPS ........................................................................ 8
2013 Highlights – Supply ............................................................. 10
North America to Non-OPEC’s rescue ............................................................................. 10
Summary of North American differential estimate vs. Brent .......................................... 11
Saudi shifts price target up again, to $110/bbl ................................................................ 13
Biggest uncertainty at the margin: Iraq, and Iran ............................................................ 13
Venezuela and Brazil ........................................................................................................ 15
Russia and Kazakhstan ..................................................................................................... 16
Non-OPEC summary ......................................................................................................... 16
Global Exploration 2013 ............................................................... 17
2013 Highlights – Demand ........................................................... 18
The new paradigm – the dominance of Non-OECD ......................................................... 18
The new price setter of global oil – China ........................................................................ 20
Bearish: Japan and Europe ............................................................................................... 22
Summary – Demand and Supply ..................................................................................... 23
Volume growth ................................................................................................................. 27
Upstream net income per barrel produced ...................................................................... 28
Downstream net income per barrel refined ..................................................................... 28
Share price premium/discount to NAV ............................................................................ 29
CEO Ownership Sensitivity to Change in Stock Price ...................................................... 30
EV/DACF, ROCE and P/E .................................................................................................. 31
Cash return to shareholders and Volume growth ............................................................ 32
Return on capital employed ............................................................................................. 34
Discounted oil price across the group ............................................................................. 35
Earnings Momentum ........................................................................................................ 38
Fundamental Indicators .................................................................................................... 39
Valuation and Risks ...................................................................... 41