Table of contents
Selectively accumulate ........................................................................................................ 3
PV growth remains solid in 2013 ..................................................................................... 3
SUV segment: New battlefield with strong demand ........................................................ 3
Mid-to-high end segment: Intensifying competition ......................................................... 3
Luxury segment: Rising along with wealth in China ........................................................ 3
Valuation and stock picks ................................................................................................ 3
Sector valuation comparison ........................................................................................... 4
PV growth remains solid in 2013 ......................................................................................... 6
Low penetration rate suggests high growth potential ...................................................... 6
Income growth is driving auto sales ................................................................................ 8
Growing demand in low-tier cities and inland regions ..................................................... 9
Risks of oversupply ....................................................................................................... 10
SUV segment: New battlefield with strong demand........................................................... 11
Low SUV penetration rate with strong sales ................................................................. 11
Upgrade and replacement demand to boost sales ....................................................... 12
New model launches to intensify competition ............................................................... 13
Limited competition in mid-to-low end segment ............................................................ 16
Mid-to-high end segment: Intensifying competition ........................................................... 17
Slowdown of PV sales ................................................................................................... 17
Intensifying competition in PV segment ........................................................................ 18
Japanese brands to regain market share in 2013 ......................................................... 19
Low-end segment is under pressure ............................................................................. 20
Luxury segment: Rising alone with wealth in China .......................................................... 23
Low luxury auto penetration rate ................................................................................... 23
Growing wealth strengthens luxury auto demand ......................................................... 23
Replacement demand drives luxury auto sales ............................................................ 24
Proliferation of economy models ................................................................................... 25
Restrictive policies won’t hurt luxury segment .............................................................. 28
Great Wall Motor (2333.HK / 2333 HK) ............................................................................ 29
BYD Co Ltd (1211.HK / 1211 HK) .................................................................................... 44
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (0175.HK / 175 HK) ......................................................... 62
Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238.HK / 2238 HK) ........................................................ 80
Dongfeng Motors Group Co Ltd (0489.HK / 489 HK) ........................................................ 83
Brilliance China Automotive Holding (1114.HK / 1114 HK) ............................................... 86

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