Table Of Contents
Industry Update ............................................................................. 3
Equity performance and estimates .................................................................................... 3
Key changes: estimates, price targets and ratings ............................................................ 4
Sensitivity analysis ............................................................................................................. 5
Valuation ............................................................................................................................. 6
DB coal/steel outlook: supply-demand; commodity price forecasts ................................. 8
Risks ................................................................................................................................... 9
Thermal coal outlook ........................................................................................................ 10
Coking coal outlook .......................................................................................................... 19
US Natural Gas ................................................................................................................. 23
Iron Ore ............................................................................................................................. 31
COAL ........................................................................................... 34
Coal company comparisons ............................................................................................. 35
ARLP: Investment Thesis ............................................................. 39
ANR: Investment Thesis .............................................................. 43
ACI: Investment Thesis ................................................................ 47
CNX: Investment Thesis .............................................................. 51
JRCC: Investment Thesis ............................................................. 55
BTU: Investment Thesis ............................................................... 59
WLT: Investment Thesis .............................................................. 63
STEEL .......................................................................................... 66
Steel company comparisons ............................................................................................ 67
AKS: Investment Thesis ............................................................... 70
ATI: Investment Thesis ................................................................ 74
MUSA: Investment Thesis ........................................................... 78
NUE: Investment Thesis .............................................................. 82
STLD: Investment Thesis ............................................................. 86
X: Investment Thesis ................................................................... 90
Appendices .................................................................................. 93