How serious are these
structural problems? 3
Reasons to be cheerful 3
1) Local government debt 3
2) Financial system risk 6
3) Aging population slows potential growth rate 9
Charts 11
GDP 12
Industrial production 14
Private consumption 16
Fixed investment 18
Trade 20
Prices 22
Commodity prices 24
Money and credit growth 26
Interest and exchange rates 28
Employment and income 30
Asset markets 32
Data and forecasts 35
China 36
Global 37
Disclosure appendix 38
Disclaimer 39