MS 摩根斯坦利：如何在中国电网投资期中获益

(16页) 08.06 August 6, 2007

China Strategy How to Play China’s Power Grid Capex Cycle

Investment Case
Summary & Conclusions
The establishing of power transmission and distribution (T&D)
facilities have long lagged the development of power
generation capacity in China. Grid peak load as percentage of
generation capacity has been declining from the peak ratio of
67% in 2003, and will reach as low as 58% in 2007, according
to China Power Associate’s estimate. The power industry aims
to remove this bottleneck in the current five-year plan, i.e.
2006-2010, through an Rmb1.25 trillion (US$160 billion)
investment in the country’s power grids. This is double the
spending in the previous five-year plan (2001-2005).
The obvious beneficiaries of this spending surge are T&D
equipment and system makers through the sharp increase
expected in demand in the next couple of years. We estimate
60% of total capex, or Rmb750 billion, to be spent on
equipment sourcing from 2006 to 2010. However, in view of
the strong performance of their shares of T&D equipment and
system companies relative to the market, we think this theme
may already be well reflected in stock prices.
We also believe that investing in the shares of upstream
commodity producers would be an attractive alternative for
playing the China power grid capex theme. The massive capex
expansion provides a strong and sustainable demand source
for several metals such as copper, aluminum and electrical
steel. Compared with equipment makers, upstream suppliers
have stronger bargaining power and are less sensitive to
material price changes.
Our top picks are: Alumina Limited (AWC.AX, A$6.84,
Overweight), and copper producers Freeport–McMoRan
(FCX.N, US$86.14, Overweight), Oxiana (OXR.AX, A$3.66,
Overweight), BHP Billiton (BHP.AX, A$36.69, BLT.L, 1,374p,
Overweight), and Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB.MX, US$6.36