麦肯锡2007亚洲经济预测PowerPoint Presentation
Asia_2007_Outlook_Economist.ppt

Emerging opportunities in developing countries in Asia

-The global economic outlook
-Asia’s economic outlook – where we see opportunities
-Issues facing businesses

作者：Graeme Maxton
Regional Director
Corporate Network
Economist Intelligence Unit
November 2006

Key Phrases: mckinsey study, china, manton townend, asean, india
Summary: The risks in Asia are high Inflation and interest rates rising Trade slowdown, especially in the US and China will hurt the rest of the region Oil prices will pinch, bringing inflation Financial markets will come under pressure – especially in India, China and Japan. In China, concerns about economic stability China’s economy carries significant risks weak banking system threats to stability skills and management shortages threat of trade barriers over-hot property sector over-capacity very like Japan or S Korea (but with $1trn in the bank). China’s opportunities The obvious: Commodities Infrastructure, esp power Industrial development Burgeoning middle class in east coast cities Consumer finance and telecoms The less obvious: Diabetes drugs – medical aid for the elderly Small-ticket consumer goods Environmental products Agricultural supplies. US $79 billion FDI in China in 2005 (restated) India the ‘new China’ US $28.6 billion of M&A activity in China in 2005 23% of inward M&A from US $12bn investment into Macao FDI in Southeast Asia rose 48% to record US $38.1 billion in 2005 US $8.7 billion from the US.