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2007-08-23

1.Market Wraps
US:
The US sharemarket continued its strength on Wednesday.After the Fed decided cut cash rate and inject billions of dollars into the sharemarket,the impact of subprime mortgage market seemed to be eliminated.The Dow Jones index surged ny 145pts or 1.1pct while Nasdaq gained 31pts or 1.2pct.The bonds price inevitably fell sharply (yields higher),in response to stronger sharemarkets.Metal prices in LME all went up a lot,with Zinc increased by 3,7% as the leader.But crude oil price continued its decrease in the last two weeks,though Mexico shut its 90% output in response to Hurricane Dean.
exchange rate:After a week's appreciation,it seems that USD return to its depreciation way,except to Japanese Jen.

China:
上证指数继续高开,盘中曾于10:10分探底,随后呈现单边上涨格局,最后收盘于5032.49点,突破5000点。分时图上显示成交量有所减少,上涨略显乏力。天相投资在一直认为大盘合理估值是在 4800~4900 左右,中信证券认为则是5000点附近。基本可以判定现在的上涨依旧合理,即使是突破了合理区间,算上未来成交量的贡献(资金推动)依然有上行空间。再者,热点板块的出现,聚集了市场的人气;Fed 的降低利率,各国央行的资金注入,日元对美元的重新贬值,为稳定各国的金融市场起到了重要作用,投资者心头的阴云也会随着时间逐渐散去。

2.券商观点
央行出人意料的在21日宣布于22日起加息27bps(中信证券的首席经济学家诸建芳曾在几天前表示,央行加息的可能性几乎为0,可谓砸了自己的招牌)各大券商对此反应基本一致。招商证券认为,本年度的第四次加息,就如同央行所说的“合理调控信贷投放,稳定通货膨胀预期”所谓。7月5.6%的CPI是我国连续5个月同比上涨3%,也是10年来CPI月度涨幅最高的一个月。央行在7月加息后仅隔一个月的加息,也反映了对通货膨胀的担忧。其建议投资者,将持仓结构转向医药,食品,汽车,航运板块。回避出口尤其是加工贸易出口行业,以及原材料行业。国泰君安同时认为,外管局和央行同时推出调控举措,短期市场震荡将加剧,建议多看少动,减少操作。

3.Shares commended
中国铝业:Though not 100% sure,I think it's time to sell 601600 as the inttrinsic value of this share is about 41.The recently mergers and acquisions were a boom to the increase in the share price,as well as its half year financial reports.Pay attention to the volumes in everyday trading,as long as large volume can't push price of 601600 up,then sell it without hesitasion.

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