Ciitgroup 花旗：外汇市场分析

08.28 32页

FX Chartbook Carry-Trade Capitulation

➤ The carry-trade unwind likely has further to run. We see more gains for the JPY and CHF and downside for the AUD, NZD and GBP.
➤ Central bank liquidity provision has steadied markets, but policy actions likely will slow, not staunch, risk reduction.
➤ Some of the recent jump in risk aversion should endure, buoying the JPY and CHF and weighing down the USD.
➤ Persistent yield spreads and liquid balance sheet should fuel a resumption of the yen carry trade when market volatility ebbs.
➤ The commodity currencies could retrace much of their recent (and expected) losses amid solid economic growth in 2008.
➤ Cyclical and structural factors pose more downside for the USD.
➤ Strong exports and supply-side improvements pose upside for the EUR.

Table of Contents
Currency Overview – Carry-Trade Capitulation.............................................................. 3
G10 – Currency Forecasts............................................................................................... 6
USD Overview............................................................................................................... 8
EUR Overview............................................................................................................. 10
JPY Overview .............................................................................................................. 12
GBP Overview............................................................................................................. 14
CHF Overview............................................................................................................. 16
NOK Overview ............................................................................................................ 18
SEK Overview ............................................................................................................. 20
CAD Overview............................................................................................................. 22
AUD Overview ............................................................................................................ 24
NZD Overview............................................................................................................. 26
G10 – Ranking Key Indicators...................................................................................... 28