FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER

Onthe Reliability of Chinese Output Figures

BY JOHNFERNALD, ISRAELMALKIN,AND MARK SPIEGEL

      Some commentators have questioned whether China’seconomy slowed more in 2012 than official gross domestic product figuresindicate. However, the 2012 reported output and industrial production figuresare consistent both with alternative Chinese indicators of the country’seconomic activity, such as electricity production, and trade volume measuresreported by non-Chinese sources. These alternative domestic and foreign sourcesprovide no evidence that China’s economic growth was slower than official data