haoyun010 发表于 2013-4-22 20:12 
的确该实证结果显示存在残差序列自相关问题
谢谢关注,不知道你说的是不是DW值?DW确实有点小。不过我后来做了个BG检验,显示木有自相关,不知道有木有问题?
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.379238 Prob. F(2,4) 0.706617
Obs*R-squared 1.753343 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.416166
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/22/13 Time: 21:04
Sample: 2007S2 2012S2
Included observations: 11
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.044573 0.602599 -0.073967 0.9446
R 0.000180 0.075772 0.002376 0.9982
PMI 0.005119 0.015094 0.339164 0.7515
GDP -0.011953 0.033665 -0.355068 0.7405
M2 -0.005150 0.015682 -0.328395 0.7591
RESID(-1) 0.141573 0.588435 0.240593 0.8217
RESID(-2) -0.579358 0.822619 -0.704284 0.5201
R-squared 0.159395 Mean dependent var -5.22E-16
Adjusted R-squared -1.101513 S.D. dependent var 0.088300
S.E. of regression 0.128005 Akaike info criterion -1.012371
Sum squared resid 0.065541 Schwarz criterion -0.759165
Log likelihood 12.56804 F-statistic 0.126413
Durbin-Watson stat 2.452783 Prob(F-statistic) 0.985738