GS 高盛：每月外汇分析报告 9月

（99页 英文） September 2007 1.93M

The Global FX Monthly Analyst

n US trade balance shows clear signs of improvement.
n But the Dollar is uncorrelated to variations in the trade balance; BBoP is key.
n US slowdown and weak capital inflows likely to weaken the Dollar further.
n We expect EUR/$ to trade at 1.43 in 3-6 months and $/¥ at 110.

Contents
Overview
Top 10 Trades & Current Trading Strategy i
Major FX Forecasts ii
Feature iii
Technical Analysis x
G3
US Dollar 1
Euro 3
Japanese Yen 5
Europe
British Pound 7
Norwegian Kroner 9
Polish Zloty 11
Swedish Krona 13
Swiss Franc 15
South African Rand 17
Czech Koruna 19
Hungarian Forint 20
Egyptian Pound 21
Israeli Shekel 22
Russian Ruble 23
Turkish Lira 24
Other Europe (SKK, RON) 25
Americas
Argentine Peso 27
Brazilian Real 29
Canadian Dollar 31
Mexican Peso 33
Chilean Peso 35
Peruvian New Sol 36
Other Latins (COP, VEB) 37
Asia
Australian Dollar 39
Chinese Yuan 41
Hong Kong Dollar 42
Indian Rupee 43
Korean Won 44
Malaysian Ringgit 45
New Zealand Dollar 46
Singapore Dollar 47
Taiwan Dollar 48
Thai Baht 49
Other Asian (IDR, PHP) 50
FX Analytics
Option Strategy 51
GS Sentiment Index 53
FX Slices 55
Correlation Cruncher: FX and Rates 57
GS Objective Currency Index 60
GS Trade Weighted Indices 61
Risk Adjusted Returns 63
G3 BBoP 64
GS Anecdotal Flows 65
Key Interest Rate Differentials 72
GSDEER 73
Possible Trading Ranges 74
5-Year Forecasts, GSDEER 74
Key Economic Data 75
Interest Rate Forecasts 79
Exchange Rate Forecasts 81