GS 高盛：每日中国报告 09.24

China Daily Insights 09.24 10页

Today’s focus
Asia Economics Analyst 07/17: Decoupling—Why do we believe this time would be different?
Asia Pacific: Transportation: Shipping: Containers: Rising risks, take profit; initiate on two companies
Beijing Enterprises Holdings (0392.HK): Share placement: reducing debt; preparing for future projects
Xingda International (1899.HK): Stock buyback kicks off with earnings recovery expected; Buy
Headline news
China may work out more restrictions to curb steel export (Xinhua)
China moves to curb price hikes ahead of national holiday (Xinhua)
China's social security fund hits 400 billion yuan (China Daily)
Investment benefits infrastructure sector (China Daily)
China, Japan renews currency swap agreement (People’s Daily)
Asia Economics Analyst 07/17: Decoupling—Why do we believe this time would be different? Hong Liang
• In a previous article, we estimated China’s potential to decouple from a US slowdown using data since 1997. In this article, we take a different approach and re-examine the case for decoupling from a bigger picture perspective.
• We argue that the macro divergences between the US and emerging Asia—some serious homegrown challenges facing the US in the coming year(s) vs. the endogenous growth strength enjoyed by Asia, resemble more the divergences between these two regions in the 1980s as opposed to the 1990s.
• In this context, we believe the strong and improved fundamentals in China as well as in the rest of emerging Asia stand a good chance of decoupling from a further weakening of the US economy or its continued sub-potential performance.
• Because of rising uncertainties in the US economy and policy risks in China, some cautiousness for the near-term macro outlook are understandable. However, we remain comfortable with our bullish assessment of the region over the next few years.