前一阵我也看过相关的一些东西，大家对日本问题的认识也不大一致。
我个人最认同下面这段话：
“My conclusion then is that there is little evidence or possibility that this policy will work as advertised, largely because it is based on a misunderstanding. It might work if Japan was in a simple liquidity trap as described by Keynes, or a balance sheet recession deleveraging process of the kind Richard Koo talks about. But once you introduce demography into the picture, as Krugman does, the game gets changed and the water incredibly muddied.”

下面这些文章都值得一读，其中还包括Ray Dalio对历史上deleveraging的分析。

http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... l_markets&ifp=0

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432861-the-a-b-e-of-economics

http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/Fi ... lio-bridgewater.pdf

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/04 ... yen-could-collapse/

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news ... -last/#.UZJXr6Le56J

http://www.economist.com/news/le ... nomics-looks-better