DB 德银：汇率前景预测

（83页） 27 September 2007

Exchange Rate Perspectives

After The Fed: Fundamental Themes and G10 FX Forecasts

A Monthly Macro Assessment of the World Currency Markets

Table of Contents
Currency Forecasts……………………………………………………….……………………………….………….………………3
The Big Picture :
After the Fed: Fundamental Themes and G10 FX Forecasts……………….…………......…..………...……………4
G10 Fx Forecasts……………………………………………………..………………………..………………….………………15
Monitors.
G10 FX Valuation Monitor: Lines in the sand………………………………………………….……….…....……………16
Capital Flows and Basic Balances………...…………………………………………………………..…..…………………19
Central Bank Reserves Currency Composition……………………………………………….…………..….……………27
Commodity Prices and Currencies………………………………………………………………...….…....……………….30
U.S. Trade Balance…………………………………………………………………………………………...……………...…34
Exchange Rate Trends in Industrialized Countries…………………………………….………………..….…….…………..38
Exchange Rate Trends in Emerging Markets………………………………………….………………….…..….……………58