DB 德银：中国宏观策略报告（25P）10.17

16 October 2007

China Macro Strategy  Chinalisation time

 

Table of Contents
Summary............................................................................................ 3
Seeking alternative China plays as Chinese listcos become
expensive ........................................................................................... 4
China’s share performance has significantly outpaced improvement in fundamentals ............4
Time to look at cheaper and less risky China exposures...........................................................5
Type I alternative exposure: Foreign firms selling in China .......................................................6
Type II alternative exposure: Foreign firms producing in China ................................................7
Type III alternative exposure: Commodity producers benefiting from China impact on prices.8
Selling in China................................................................................ 10
Quantitative scoring ................................................................................................................10
Beneficiaries ...........................................................................................................................10
Producing in China .......................................................................... 12
Quantitative scoring ................................................................................................................12
Beneficiaries ...........................................................................................................................12
Producing commodities.................................................................. 15
Ranking China’s impact on commodity demand by product...................................................15
Beneficiaries ...........................................................................................................................16
The “Chinalisation” basket............................................................. 18
The basket ..............................................................................................................................18
Valuations of the basket are much more attractive than China indices, and growth appears
stronger .................................................................................................................................18
Chinalisation basket significantly outperformed the MSCI World Index .................................19
Chinese liquidity will likely support these names....................................................................20
Two ways to get into “Chinalisation” .....................................................................................21