高盛高华-高华证券--亚太投资组合策略

10.18           15页

 

Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy
Weekly Kickstart
Your 5-min guide to performance, sentiment, valuations, earnings, events, and stocks
• It’s all about China: MXAPJ –0.8%; CN +3% vs. KR –4%
• Top range valuation: Region at 17.0x; CN 24x, IN 22x
• US$2.4bn net outflow: 1st week of heavy foreign selling since
August low, KR hit most (–US$1.8bn)
Market and sector performance
• MXAPJ –0.8%; +42% ytd, +37% from Aug low
• China (+3%) was the only up market
• Laggards: KR, JP (–4%), SG (–2%)
• Energy (+5%) and telcos (+3%) led; financials,
consumer discretionary –2.5%
Fund flows, risk appetite and index volatility
• US$2.4bn net outflow; 1st week of heavy foreign
selling since August low, KR hit most (–US$1.8bn)
• Turnover rose in most markets except China-A
• Risk appetite staying at low levels
• HSCEI and HSI futures most discounted; SET50 still at
high premium
• Skew rose in general; higher vol for NIFTY, NKY, TPX
Report priced as of Oct 17, 2007 (Index performance as of Oct 18)
Earnings and valuation
• Region at 17.0x 12M P/E; CN 24x, IN 22x
• MXAPJ 07E EPS growth 19%
• Valuations expanded most for markets/ sectors with
strongest upward EPS rev (CN, IN, energy, telcos)
• +ve rev: CN, IN; energy and telcos strongest
• –ve rev: AU, PH; tech, utilities weakest
Rates and currency
• Rates generally higher; HK short