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Consensus earnings still high ahead of 2012 results
but investors already expect a better 2013… We
think most investors have already discounted a scenario
of declining gross margin but improving inventory health
for the footwear companies in 2H12. Looking into 2013,
we expect a gradual SSSG reacceleration for Belle but a
delay for Daphne until 2H given high base comparison.
Based on our inventory health matrix analysis, we think
gross margin improvement and healthy inventory growth
will likely contribute to quality earnings growth that
support further valuation multiple expansion in 1H13.

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