MS 摩根斯坦利：中海油 最新研究 20页　英文

October 29, 2007         20页

China Molybdenum  Transformational Acquisition

 

At our China metals forum last week, management indicated
that it is working hard on accretive acquisitions, first in gold
then in moly. We believe investor confidence will increase in
the success of this growth strategy post the completion of its
gold mine acquisition by year-end.
We are now more comfortable incorporating a transformational
acquisition in our base-case EPS forecasts, and now forecast a
doubling in volumes and earnings power from our previous
forecasts through the end of the decade. Our new 2008 and
2009 EPS forecasts are being increased by more than 100% to
Rmb1.34 and Rmb1.25, respectively.
China Moly trades at 13.2x on our new ‘08e EPS forecast,
representing a 47% discount to its closest peer, Hunan
Nonferrous (see our initiation report published today), and in
line with its global materials peers.