Title: Chinese saving dynamics: the impact of GDP growth and the dependent share
Author: Bonham, Carl ，Wiemer, Calla                                                                                                                                             
来源: Oxford Economic Papers, 2013, Vol. 65(1), pp.173-196
Abstract:
Chinaʼs national saving rate rose rapidly in the 2000s after declining through the late 1990s. These dynamics are not readily explained by the precautionary motive, the institutional distribution of income, or reform related processes in general. Rather, we find a compelling explanation lies with GDP growth fluctuations and demographic shifts. We estimate a vector autoregressive model for the period 1978–2008, then generate in-sample simulations that successfully replicate the 2000s run-up in the saving rate. Our out of sample forecasts project a decline in the saving rate in the 2010s as the dependent share falls and GDP growth moderates.     
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