汇丰国内各省经济形势展望报告

原有的以地方ZF为主导的发展模式将失去动力，未来增长将取决于中央ZF如何带动地方ZF

270页，英文原版。

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Re-tuning the growth engine

Why the balance of power must shift back to Beijing


China at the crossroads 7
Beijing vs. local governments:
it’s getting more complicated 9
China’s contradictions and
stress points 11
Macro-micro disconnect 14
High growth vs. low returns 16
Excess liquidity vs. credit crunch 17
Slow growth vs. strong RMB and high rates 18
Urbanisation: looking beyond
the obvious 20
Who pays for it? 20
A host of related issues 22
Why over-ambition leads to
oversupply 28
A state of loss 28
Beijing acts 31
Boom town blues 31
You’ve got competition 33
The good news: infrastructure, scale, logistics and brains 39
Go West: up to a point 40
A new growth engine 40
Challenges 44

Rail: a growth anchor 47
A new beginning 47
Growth and debt 48
How the system works 52
Local government hierarchy 52
Provinces 55
Eastern Region 56
Beijing (北京) 57
Fujian (福建) 62
Guangdong (广东) 66
Hainan (海南) 71
Hebei (河北) 75
Jiangsu (江苏) 79
Shandong (山东) 84
Shanghai (上海) 88
Tianjin (天津) 93
Zhejiang (浙江) 97
Western Region 101
Chongqing (重庆) 103
Gansu (甘肃) 108
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (广西) 112
Guizhou (贵州) 116

Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (内蒙古) 120
Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (宁夏) 124
Qinghai (青海) 128
Shaanxi (陕西) 132
Sichuan (四川) 136
Tibet Autonomous Region (西藏) 141
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (新疆) 145
Yunnan (云南) 149
Central Region 153
Anhui (安徽) 155
Henan (河南) 159
Hubei (湖北) 163
Hunan (湖南) 167
Jiangxi (江西) 171
Shanxi (山西) 175
Northeast Region 179
Heilongjiang (黑龙江) 181
Jilin (吉林) 185
Liaoning (辽宁) 189
Province Comparison 193
Major Cities 205
Summary 206
Beijing (北京) 207
Changchun (长春) 212
Chengdu (成都) 214
Chongqing (重庆) 216
Dalian (大连) 218

Guangzhou (广州) 220
Hangzhou (杭州) 222
Harbin (哈尔滨) 224
Jinan (济南) 226
Nanjing (南京) 228
Ningbo (宁波) 230
Qingdao (青岛) 232
Shanghai (上海) 234
Shenyang (沈阳) 236
Shenzhen (深圳) 238
Suzhou (苏州) 240
Tianjin (天津) 242
Wuhan (武汉) 244
Wuxi (无锡) 246
Xiamen (厦门) 248
Xi’an (西安) 250
Major Cities Comparison 253
Appendix 257
A: China maps 258
B: Monthly minimum wage level by province 262
C: Sector classification 263
D: Glossary 264
Disclosure appendix 266
Disclaimer 268